Buried deep in a Billmon Post last week was a critical chart and a few words of wisdom on why this is NOT a repeat of the inflation scene of the 70's and 80's. Most reading his post probably missed the key idea in a potpourri of other ideas. Let's take a look. Wages and SalariesWe would need to see a lot faster wage growth -- growth at or exceeding the current 3% core CPI rate -- before I would think about buying a piece of the inflation is coming back story. And while those kind of wage gains are not impossible I definitely don't see it right now. What we have, in other words, is almost pure cost-push inflation -- instead of the wage-price spiral that made the '70s such an interesting time to live through, financially speaking. At some point, presumably when the extra disposable income derived from that last mortgage refi runs out, households are going to have to suck it in. Indeed it looks like it's already started -- retail sales are weakening and the Amazon-sized river of imports flowing in from points east (or west, if you live in California) has actually slowed a bit. Meanwhile, job growth has decelerated, jobless claims are creeping up and housing starts finally appear to be, well, stopping. That indeed is the heart of the matter. I have been harping about this for what seems like ages. Everyone is in some sort of 'Inflation Scare' AFTER 16 consecutive rate hikes. Does this make any sense? I suppose it does to those that are perpetually gloomy on the US$ or US treasuries who probably now feel vindicated by this blip up in treasury yields. It all comes down to wages and housing and jobs. Without meaningful rises in employment and wages, the former above the birth rate plus the rate of immigration (both illegal and illegal), and the latter above the TRUE cost of living, inflation really does not have a chance. Yes at 1% we had sustainable inflation. An incredible housing boom was the result. The better question (looking ahead) is 'What Now?'Has Inflation Won Out? I have been asked countless times what it would take for me to throw in my 'deflation towel', oddly enough(or perhaps not) most of those questions have come in the last few months right on the verge of victory. Unlike Stephen Roach (a Morgan Stanley permabear who suddenly and without reason turned bullish about two weeks ago), I am not reversing course here. Is that illogical? I think not. I have many times stated what will change my mind. It is really simple: 'wage increases, job growth, and housing that does not bust'. I see little reason to change course now. In fact, treasuries are probably a screaming buy. Primer on InflationMost people screaming 'inflation' do not know what it really is. Those that think 'Inflation = Price Increases' are sadly mistaken. In fact that is one of the reasons why we see repetitive bubbles being blown by the Fed. If you think inflation = price rises, I suggest reading the following:
BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Moody's Investors Service on Thursday placed Ambac Financial Inc (ABK), which insures more than $500 billion in bonds, on review for a possible ratings cut, an event that could trigger similar downgrades on billions of dollars of debt. A cut could mean the ratings on the bonds it insured -- which amount to $556 billion in value -- would also be lowered, forcing the owners of those bonds to mark down the value of their portfolios. Moody's announcement came after Ambac, hard hit by the turmoil in credit markets, said it was recording a $3.5 billion write-down, equivalent to nearly two-thirds of its net worth, and plans to raise $1 billion in new capital to maintain its ratings. MBIA Inc (MBI), the world's biggest bond insurer, sold $1 billion of surplus notes last week to shore up capital and preserve its crucial triple-A rating. 'The markets are...
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