К основному контенту

Citigroup has come up with possible $5 billion in writedowns...

Citigroup has come up with possible $5 billion in writedowns on E*Trade which would more that wipe out E*Trades equity. With that in mind let's look at E*Trade's 10-Q filed on November 9 and see if we can come up with enough problem areas to reach $5 billion. Credit Ratings On Asset Backed Securitiesclick on chart for crisper displayEasily $1.26 billion in asset backed securities is of dubious value. There is also a noticeable distinction right now between AAA and AA. No breakdown is available on that grouping. $1.77 Billion in asset backed securities is rated AA or higher. E*Trade Loan Receivablesclick on chart for crisper displayLoan to Value and FICO analysisclick on chart for crisper displayFICO Scores from myFICOThe above APRs are for 30 year fixed as of 2007-11-12 and are provided to give a practical idea of differences between FICO scores as to credit quality. Portfolio Vintageclick on chart for crisper displayE*Trade ramped up loans at the worst possible time, right as housing peaked and for another year after. Thus I question the loan to value numbers listed earlier. A 5-10% devaluation of those assets (losses would be far bigger in a forced sale), is certainly within the realm of likely. Miscellaneous 10-Q Facts and Figures

Комментарии

Популярные сообщения из этого блога

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Moody's Investors Service on Thursday placed Ambac Financial Inc (ABK), which insures more than $500 billion in bonds, on review for a possible ratings cut, an event that could trigger similar downgrades on billions of dollars of debt. A cut could mean the ratings on the bonds it insured -- which amount to $556 billion in value -- would also be lowered, forcing the owners of those bonds to mark down the value of their portfolios. Moody's announcement came after Ambac, hard hit by the turmoil in credit markets, said it was recording a $3.5 billion write-down, equivalent to nearly two-thirds of its net worth, and plans to raise $1 billion in new capital to maintain its ratings. MBIA Inc (MBI), the world's biggest bond insurer, sold $1 billion of surplus notes last week to shore up capital and preserve its crucial triple-A rating. 'The markets are...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Ambac Financial Group Inc., struggling to avoid the crippling loss of its AAA credit rating, took out insurance on $29 billion in securities it guarantees. The world's second-biggest bond insurer agreed to transfer the risk that the securities will default to Assured Guaranty Ltd., according to a statement today. Reinsuring the debt will free up capital backing those bonds, Ambac said. Ambac guarantees $556 billion of securities and the loss of its AAA rating jeopardizes the rankings on that debt as well as threatens the New York-based company's biggest source of revenue. 'Reinsurance is a valuable, capital-efficient and shareholder-friendly tool for managing risk and capital,' Ambac Chief Executive Officer, Robert Genader said in the statement. My Comment: Reinsurance on $29 billion out of $556 billion is unlikely to do anything but waste mone...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A certain dose of market discipline in the form of lower prices might be healthy, but market forecasters currently project over two million defaults before this current cycle is complete. The resultant impact on housing prices is likely to be close to -10%, an asset deflation in the U. S. never seen since the Great Depression. The ultimate solution, it seems to me, must not emanate from the bowels of Fed headquarters on Constitution Avenue, but from the West Wing of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. If we can bail out Chrysler, why can’t we support the American homeowner? The time has come to acknowledge that there are precedents aplenty in the long and even recent history of American policy making. This rescue, which admittedly might bail out speculators who deserve much worse, would support millions of hard working Americans whose recent hours have become ones of fr...