In the last two recessions unemployment was a lagging indicator peaking approximately 18 months after the recession officially ended. In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover. In no instances was unemployment a leading indicator. The chart speaks for itself. The above chart thanks to Bart at NowAndFutures.(Click on chart for an enhanced view)ConclusionThose expecting some sort of huge advance warning in unemployment stats in advance of the next recession are unlikely to find it. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. com/
Following are a few charts of interest for February 27, 2007.Click on any chart for a better view. NYSE Declining VolumeNYSE Advancing VolumeNYSE Declining IssuesNYSE Advancing Issues$Nasdaq Declining Volume$Nasdaq Advancing VolumeNasdaq Declining IssuesNasdaq Advancing IssuesVIXVXN BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any acti...
Комментарии
Отправить комментарий