К основному контенту

This was an interesting week

This was an interesting week. The market sold off on what might have been construed as a double shot of good news. Consider the following chart.$SPX S&P 500 15 Minute Chartclick on chart for sharper imageDouble tops are taken out all the time. Perhaps this one is too. What is interesting however, is that this double top was formed when conditions were extremely oversold, in the face of what one might have thought was a double shot of good news. Double Shot Of Good News1) Bernanke all but admitted he was going to slash interest rates. The market popped on this news then subsequently gave it all back.2) Countrywide Financial (CFC) was on the verge of bankruptcy but was bailed out by Bank of America (BAC). The market popped on this news then subsequently gave it back. For more on the state of the economy and Bernanke's intentions please Read Between Bernanke's Lines: Things Are Going To Get Worse. Perhaps the market is finally sensing that rate cuts are not going to be the cure that everyone has hyped for months on end. My take on the Countrywide bailout can be found in Countrywide Buyout Deal Greased From The Start and Nationalization of the Banking System. Late Friday Herb Greenberg offered The Real Story on Countrywide.$SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chartclick on chart for sharper imageMarket Reaction Is Decidedly Not BullishGiven the decisive break of the 50 EMA a test of the 200EMA a 1320 is a reasonable bet. However, there is not strong technical support there. 1250 or 1150 are stronger technical areas from which to bounce. Kevin Depew, one of the best reads on Minyanville offered this opinion today.

Комментарии

Популярные сообщения из этого блога

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Moody's Investors Service on Thursday placed Ambac Financial Inc (ABK), which insures more than $500 billion in bonds, on review for a possible ratings cut, an event that could trigger similar downgrades on billions of dollars of debt. A cut could mean the ratings on the bonds it insured -- which amount to $556 billion in value -- would also be lowered, forcing the owners of those bonds to mark down the value of their portfolios. Moody's announcement came after Ambac, hard hit by the turmoil in credit markets, said it was recording a $3.5 billion write-down, equivalent to nearly two-thirds of its net worth, and plans to raise $1 billion in new capital to maintain its ratings. MBIA Inc (MBI), the world's biggest bond insurer, sold $1 billion of surplus notes last week to shore up capital and preserve its crucial triple-A rating. 'The markets are...

This post will address the relevance of the Fed after...

This post will address the relevance of the Fed after a further continuation of the 'Saga of Sonnypage', an Atlanta area real estate broker. Sonnypage has this update to share, followed by my thoughts on the Fed, the economy, and housing. Sonnypage was highlighted in Lights Out in Georgia on 2006-07-27 and Soft Market Debris on 2006-08-02. As you can see from the date of Sonnpage's post, this is slightly out of sequence. Here goes from Sonnypage:Sonypage - 2006-07-30Most of the regulars here know that my wife and I are Realtors, a husband and wife team, who practice just north of Atlanta. Our business is still mostly in the towns of Roswell and Alpharetta, but now also increasingly further north, up into Cherokee and Forsyth counties, and up to Hall County on Lake Lanier. Our price range is all over the board, from a low within the last year of $125,000 and a high of $1,250,000. We are strictly residential, no commercial. We have incorporated ourselves, but are still indepe...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Ambac Financial Group Inc., struggling to avoid the crippling loss of its AAA credit rating, took out insurance on $29 billion in securities it guarantees. The world's second-biggest bond insurer agreed to transfer the risk that the securities will default to Assured Guaranty Ltd., according to a statement today. Reinsuring the debt will free up capital backing those bonds, Ambac said. Ambac guarantees $556 billion of securities and the loss of its AAA rating jeopardizes the rankings on that debt as well as threatens the New York-based company's biggest source of revenue. 'Reinsurance is a valuable, capital-efficient and shareholder-friendly tool for managing risk and capital,' Ambac Chief Executive Officer, Robert Genader said in the statement. My Comment: Reinsurance on $29 billion out of $556 billion is unlikely to do anything but waste mone...